Sunday 8th October 2023

Premier League

Arsenal v Manchester City 17:30(CEST)

  • Met 190 times in the league, Arsenal 87, Draws 44, Man City 59
  • Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Arsenal 1-3 Man City
  • Man City took 6 points off Arsenal last season
  • Already met in the Community Shield this season (Arsenal 1-1 Man City, Arsenal won on pens)
  • Man City have won their last 12 league head-to-heads vs Arsenal
  • Man City are unbeaten in their last 15 league head-to-heads vs Arsenal
  • 16 of the last 21 head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
  • Man City have scored at least 3 goals in 10 of their last 17 vs Arsenal (all comps)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads

 

After no 4:30pm match in the Premier League last Sunday, we are back with a bang this weekend with the clash of the ‘week 8’ games as Arsenal host Manchester City at the Emirates.

City’s excellent start to the new season hit the buffers last week with a loss in the EFL Cup, while they also suffered their first defeat in the league this term with a shock 2-1 beating against Wolves.

Arsenal saw off Bournemouth 4-0 and, as a result of City’s slip-up, it’s tightened up at the top of the table, with City on 18 points, Arsenal and Spurs on 17 and Liverpool on 16.

The match betting for Sunday’s game sees City as the slight favourites at 2.45, with the draw @ 3.40 and Arsenal on offer at 2.80.

Don’t forget the pair have also already played this season – when meeting in the Community Shield in August. That ended 1-1, with Arsenal winning on penalties.

However, recent seasons have seen a dominance by City though and the champions also took 6 point off the Gunners in the league last season, with this repeat fixture ending 1-3.

In fact, the Blue Moon has won their last 12 league head-to-heads vs Arsenal, which is a dominate stat considering the heavyweight status of both clubs – you’d have thought the Gunners might have grabbed at least 1 win, or even a draw in that period.

While City are also unbeaten in their last 15 league games vs Arsenal – you have to go back to December 2015 to find the last time the Gunners got 3 points vs City in the league.

City also love scoring vs Arsenal – they’ve netted at least 3 goals in 10 of their last 17 games, which can be backed again at 4.50.

Other betting options that could be of interest are both teams to score @ 1.61 – a bet that’s paid out in 4 of the last 5 – while 16 of the last 21 clashes went Over 2.5 Goals, which is on the table at 1.75.

Looking at the scoring markets – Arsenal’s Saka has been in great form this season already and will be popular @ 9.00 first or 4.00 anytime, while a certain Erling Haaland is always going to be popular too @ 4.33 first or 2.20 anytime as he hunts league goal number 9 this season.

Overall, it’s a game that even the Premier League neutrals will be tuning into this Sunday. The draw is sure to be popular @ 3.40, but with only 1 league stalemate in the last 14, we tend to get a result here.

With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the great record of City vs Arsenal and after a small rocky patch for the champions, we expect Pep to regroup his side and @ 2.45 the Citizens look fair value. For the more conservative, then City/Draw in the ‘double chance’ market might appeal more @ 1.40.

But, with both teams scoring in 80% of the last 5 meetings, the 1.61 on this outcome still looks fair value despite being odds-on.

 

BEST BET: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.61