Premier League, Saturday 23rd September 2023

Burnley v Manchester United 21:00(CEST)

  • Played 118 times, Burnley 41, Draws 21, Man Utd 56
  • Last played (EFL Cup 21 Dec 2022, Man Utd 2-0 Burnley)
  • Last repeat fixture (Prem, Feb 22) ended, Burnley 1-1 Man Utd
  • Man Utd took 4 points off Burnley the last season they met
  • Man Utd have won 2 of the last 4 head-to-heads 3-1
  • Man Utd have lost just 1 of their last 16 vs Burnley
  • 10 of the last 15 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • The last 8 repeat fixtures ALL went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • Both teams DIDN’T score in 5 of the last 9 head-to-heads
  • 5 of the last 14 head-to-heads ended in DRAWS
  • Burnley have scored just 1 goal in last 7 repeat fixtures
  • Man Utd have scored in 11 of their last 12 vs Burnley

We’ve a rare Saturday 9pm game this weekend in the Premier League as Burnley host Manchester United in what is a huge match for both sides.

Newly promoted Burnley have only secured 1 point so far this season in the league with a draw last Monday vs Forest, while the pressure continues to mount on United and boss Erik Ten Hag having last 3 of their opening 5 league games and sit on just 6 points.

The match betting still favours Man Utd though at 1.70, with the draw 4.2 and Burnley on the table at 4.33.

They last met in the EFL Cup last season, which United won 2-0, while with Burnley only coming back up to the Premier League this season, the last time they met in the league was in February 2022 – which ended Burnley 1-1 Man Utd.

In fact, United fans will be pleased to hear that they’ve only lost 1 of their last 16 vs Burnley and also scored in 11 of their last 12 vs the Clarets.

While Burnley have also only scored 1 goal in the last 7 repeat fixtures – but it is worth pointing out 5 of the last 14 meetings (36%) ended in draws.

With this in mind, you can back Man Utd/Draw in the Double Chance market at 1.20.

Looking in the correct score market, then a 3-1 Man Utd win has been popular too, with this scoreline coming true in 2 of the last 4 clashes.

Another way to potentially play this game is in the Overs/Unders market as 10 of the last 15 meetings saw less than 3 goals scored – this is on the table at 2.30, plus the last 8 repeat fixtures also ALL went Under 2.5 Goals.

Overall, it’s a game that will be huge for both sides with poor starts to the season. Man Utd have also had a tough midweek clash with Bayern Munich on Wednesday night, which they lost 4-3, so Burnley will come here slightly the fresher, with their last match last Monday.

The scoring markets see United’s Marcus Rashford as their shortest player in the betting at 5.00 (1st) or 2.25 (anytime), with Burnley’s Zeki Amdouni on the table at 9.50 (1st) or 4.00 (anytime).

United will be the obvious choice to walk away with all three points, but with the pressure mounting on the Red Devils and being away from home here, then it might not be as straightforward a task as the betting suggests.

With Under 2.5 Goals having paid out in ALL of the last 8 repeat fixtures, then there looks to be some value here at 2.30 in what could easily turn into a cagey affair.

 

BEST BET: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.30