Sunday 13th May 2018
Newcastle v Chelsea 15:00
Okay, so Man City have already won the league and there are several relegation possibilities still to decide but the ‘top four’ race is also not 100% settled so this week we are going to take a look at Chelsea’s game away at Newcastle.
After looking out of the ‘top four’ race the Blues have ended their 2017/18 campaign on a high and now have a squeak of ending the season in one of the four Champions League places.
Chelsea end their season with a tricky away trip to Newcastle though – a place they’ve not won at in the league since 2011 (4 repeat fixtures ago).
What do the stats say? With Newcastle safe and looking at a solid mid-table finish then the Toon Army don’t really have much to play for, barring moving up a bit higher in the table.
The match betting reflects this with Chelsea on offer at just 1.66, with the draw 3.75 and Newcastle as big as 5.00.
The sides have met at Stamford Bridge twice this season (League and FA Cup), with Chelsea winning them both (3-0, Cup and 3-1, League). While the last repeat fixture was back in 2015 and that ended in a 2-2 draw.
In fact, Newcastle have a decent home record over Chelsea, so be warned if you are lumping on the 1.66 on the Londoners winning this one. The Magpies have won 3 of the last 4 repeat fixtures and are unbeaten in the last 4 league games in front of their home fans against the Blues.
With that good recent home record the 2.25 on offer on Newcastle/Draw in the ‘Double Chance’ market might not be the worst shout in the world.
Will there be goals? If recent head-to-heads are anything to go by then the short answer is – yes, there should be. 6 of the last 7 head-to-heads have gone OVER 2.5 GOALS, while 4 of the last 5 repeat fixtures also saw 3+ goals scored. A repeat of this can be backed at 2.00, with Under 2.5 at 1.80.
Both teams have also scored in 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads so at 1.95 there looks to be some value in this option too.
With just 1 draw in the last 12 head-to-heads then sharing the points is not a common outcome when these sides meet.
Having said that, with Chelsea having also scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 vs Newcastle and also having much more riding on the game then the 2.00 (odds are subject to change) on offer on 3+ goals being scored in the game is the way we’re going to play this one.
Best Bet: OVER 2.5 GOALS @2.00
Sunday 13th May 2018
Newcastle United v Chelsea 15:00
- Already played this season, Chelsea 3-1 Newcastle
- Also met in the FA Cup this season, Chelsea 3-0 Newcastle
- Last repeat fixture (2015, Prem), Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 4 home league games vs Chelsea
- Newcastle have won 3 of their last 4 home league games vs Chelsea
- 6 of the last 7 head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
- 4 of the last 5 repeat fixtures went OVER 2.5 GOALS
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads
- Chelsea have scored in the last 7 head-to-heads
- Chelsea have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 games vs Newcastle
- Hazard (Chelsea) scored 2 goals in this season’s league fixture vs Newcastle
- 1 DRAW in the last 12 head-to-heads (all comps)