Italy vs England Thursday 23rd March 2023 Euro 2024 Qualifier

Recent Head-to-Head Stats

  • Met 30 times before, England 8, Draws 11, Italy 11
  • FIFA World Rankings, England 5, Italy 8
  • Last played (Nations League), Italy 1-0 England
  • Italy have lost just 1 of their last 11 vs England
  • 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads ended 1-1
  • 5 DRAWS in the last 8 head-to-heads (4 of the last 5)
  • 10 of the last 13 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 head-to-heads (but not last 2)
  • 11 of England’s last 17 games went OVER 2.5 GOALS
  • Both DIDN’T score in 20 of England’s last 29 games
  • England have lost just 4 of their last 33 games (90 mins)
  • England have won 16 of their last 31 games ‘to nil’
  • Kane (England) is their current top scorer (53)
  • 4 of Italy’s last 13 games ended in DRAWS
  • Italy have conceded in 8 of their last 11 games
  • Italy have lost just 2 of their last 8 games

It’s back to International duty for the best players in Europe this week as the qualifying gets going for Euro 2024.

And one of the big opening week highlights is a repeat of the 2021 European Championships Final between England and Italy.

Of course, it was Italy that got the job done that day with a win on pens after a 1-1 draw in normal time, so the Three Lions of England will be looking to get some revenge here.

The sides have, however, met a few times since that 2021 Final – twice in the Nations League in 2022. Those games ended 0-0 and 1-0 to Italy. Therefore, England will head into Thursday’s game having not beaten the Azzurri in their last six.

Looking at the match betting, it’s a close call with England priced at 13/8, the Draw 21/10 and Italy at 7/4.

The FIFA World Rankings see just 3 places between the sides, with England in 5th and Italy in 8th.

However, it’s certainly Italy that come into the game with the better head-to-head record. They’ve lost just 1 of their last 11 now vs England, but the draw has been a popular outcome.

In the last 5 meetings, a massive 4 have been all-square, while 3 of those have ended 1-1. You can back this scoreline again at 5/1.

These clashes have also been low-scoring games in general, with 10 of the last 13 going Under 2/5 Goals – this is on offer at 13/20, while despite the last two head-to-heads seeing both teams NOT score, we’ve actually had 5 of the last 7 clashes see both teams find the back of the net.

Both teams to score is on the table at 5/6, while it’s the same price for both teams NOT to score.

England were also involved in the World Cup in the winter – going out to France in the Qtr-final stages in the end, while Italy didn’t qualify for that competition so will head here the fresher.

That said, England have still only lost 4 of their last 33 games inside 90mins, so England or the draw in the ‘double chance’ market might appeal.

Looking at the scoring markets, obviously Harry Kane, with 53 England goals is always a popular pick. The Spurs man is 9/2 (1st) or 8/5 (anytime). No Rashford, as the United man is injured, so the Three Lions could take a chance on Brentford’s Ivan Toney – he’s 5/1 (1st) or 7/4 (anytime).

The shortest-priced Italy player in the scoring markets is Mateo Retegui – the Tigre striker would be making his debut but is making a top impact at domestic level and can be backed at 11/2 (1st) or 2/1 (anytime).

Overall, it’s a game that nether side will want to lose, but you feel with Ukraine, North Macedonia and Malta in the group, England and Italy will be the big two favourites to progress here.

That said, another cagey game could be on the cards and a draw at 21/10 will be a popular pick. But Under 2.5 Goals also looks a solid option in a bet that has paid out in 10 of the last 13 meetings (77%).

BEST BET: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 13/20