Sunday 21st January 2018
Southampton v Tottenham 16:00, Sky Sports
It’s hard to believe we are into week 24 in the Premier League this weekend, but all 20 sides are in action and with table-topping Man City losing their unbeaten league record last week to Liverpool, then it will be interesting to see how that impacts the Citizens.
That said, City are still well-clear at the top of the table and it would still need a monumental collapse from Pep Guardiola’s side to thrown the 2017/18 title away – they are still 1.012 to win the league!
Anyway, enough of City and onto this week. Plenty of decent games to get stuck into, including City at home to Newcastle, but it’s the Southampton v Tottenham clash on Sunday that catches the eye most.
Southampton head into the game in desperate need of points – they are just outside the relegation places on 21 points after not recording a league win in their last 10 games.
However, they face a rampant Spurs side that scored four against Everton last weekend so things certainly don’t get any easier for struggling Southampton.
That is also reflected in the match betting with Tottenham the clear favourites to take all three points on 1.61, with the draw 3.90 and Southampton as big as 5.25.
What do the stats say?
The sides met earlier in the season at Wembley and with Spurs winning that one easily 5-2 then it’s not surprising to see the Londoners odds-on to win again. The also took this repeat fixture 1-4 last season, while Spurs have tasted defeat just once in their last 11 league games against the Saints!
Spurs are also unbeaten in their last five away league games at St Mary’s so even at 1.61 that actually looks a fair price to us – it might pay to, therefore, just keep this one simple.
If you are looking for other markets to play in then the ‘both teams to score’ option might appeal. 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads between these sides have seen both sides find the back of the net so at 1.80 (odds are subject to change) this catches the eye. The same amount of recent clashes have also seen OVER 2.5 GOALS so at 1.90 this is certainly another potential bet to have on your radar – in fact, 2 of the last 3 meetings even went OVER 4.5 GOALS, so if you’re feeling brave then 5 or more goals again can be backed at 6.00.
It’s worth noting that last season’s repeat fixture had a RED CARD produced (Southampton) so there might be some boil over from this.
In terms of scorers to note then Spurs have several players that seem to love playing against the Saints. Harry Kane, who already has 20 league goals this season, has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games vs the Saints, while Dele Alli is the same (5 in 5). The in-form Heung-Min Son also has a cracking record when playing Southampton – the South Korean international has bagged 3 goals in his last four.
So, yes, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are certainly options is a clash that generally produces goals. Kane will, of course, be popular in the scoring markets too, but also pretty poor value.
Therefore, this might just be one of those games to keep things simple. Spurs at 1.61 (odds are subject to change) looks a fair price and despite it not going to make us rich overnight it’s still just about big enough to get a fair return.
Many punters will be looking to perm up Spurs in weekend double and trebles too, but with the Londoners keen to keep tabs on the top four in the table, and a lucrative Champions League place, then anything but a win here will be hugely disappointing for Pochettino’s side.
Best Bet: TOTTENHAM TO WIN @1.61
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Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur 16:00, Sky Sports
– Already played this season, Spurs 5-2 Southampton
– Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Southampton 1-4 Spurs
– Spurs have lost just 1 of their last 11 league games vs Southampton
– Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads
– 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
– Spurs are unbeaten in their last 5 away league games vs Southampton
– Last season’s repeat fixture saw a RED CARD (Southampton)
– Heung-Min Son has scored 3 in his last 4 vs Southampton
– Harry Kane has scored 5 in his last 5 vs Southampton
– Dele Alli has scored 5 in his last 5 vs Southampton
– Spurs have lost just 1 of their last 9 vs Southampton
– Spurs have scored in their last 11 league games
– Southampton have not won in their last 10 league games
– Austin is Southampton’s top league scorer this season (6 goals)
– Kane is Spurs’ top league scorer this season (20 goals)