Saturday 4th March 2023

Premier League

Manchester City v Newcastle United 12:30

  • Met 171 times in the league before, Man City 68, Draws 38, Newcastle 65
  • Already met this season in the league, Newcastle 3-3 Man City
  • Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Man City 5-0 Newcastle
  • Man City have lost just 1 of their last 31 games in the league vs Newcastle
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 league head-to-heads
  • 11 of the last 14 league head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
  • 12 of the last 13 repeat league fixtures went OVER 2.5 GOALS
  • 8 of the last 10 repeat league fixtures went OVER 3.5 GOALS
  • Man City have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of the last 10 repeat league fixtures
  • Just 2 DRAWS in the last 24 league head-to-heads

Manchester City got their Premier League title challenge back on track with an easy 4-1 win against Bournemouth at the weekend, but they are still playing catch-up and can’t afford many more slip-ups.

Next up for the champions is a home clash against Newcastle, who will be licking their wounds having lost in the EFL Cup Final last weekend.

Newcastle have also dropped back in the top four race (5th) with Spurs overtaking them, so they also will need a win here.

The match betting suggests an easy win for City though at 4/9 with the draw 7/2 and Newcastle at 7/2.

The sides met easier this season at St James’ Park and that ended in a 3-3 thriller. If you fancy that score again it’s on the table at a big 50/1.

Newcastle fans will also want to forget this repeat fixture last season – they got thumped 5-0.

In fact, City have a top record against Newcastle. They’ve only lost one of their last 31 games vs the Magpies!

The champs have also a fine habit of scoring vs Newcastle – they’ve netted at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 10 repeat fixtures.

With only 2 draws in the last 24 head-to-heads – one was last time – we are still happy to avoid a stalemate.

But in a fixture that often sees goals – we had 6 in the last head-to-head – then Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 looks a solid option. This bet has paid out in 11 of the last 14 clashes and also in 93% of the last 14 repeat fixtures.

In fact, if you want a bit more value, then add another goal and go for Over 3.5 Goals @ 13/8 as this have happened in 8 of the last 10 too.

In the scoring markets, no shocker to see Erling Haaland, who was on target in the 3-3 draw earlier this season, at 11/5 to score first or 4/6 anytime.

Newcastle’s shortest-priced player in the scoring markets is Callum Wilson at 9/1 (1st) or 10/3 (anytime) – he also scored in the 3-3 draw. While Alexander Isak at 10/1 (1st) or 7/2 (anytime).

Overall, with home advantage it’s a game Man City should be winning. After a good start to the season, you just feel Newcastle are running out of steam a bit and could be ready to rebuild for next term.

Over 2.5 goals looks solid at 4/6, but if you want more value go for Over 3.5 at 13/8..

BEST BET: OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 4/6