Saturday 20th January 2018
Manchester City v Newcastle United 17:30, BT Sports
Manchester City suffered their first league defeat of the season last weekend away at Liverpool, but they still head into week 24 with a 12 point lead over bitter rivals Man Utd and remain long odds-on to lift the 2017/18 title.
Next up is a home clash against struggling Newcastle too, so getting back to winning ways here looks likely.
The bookmakers agree too with City as short as 1.10 in the match betting, with the draw 10.00 and Newcastle a stonking 21.00 (odds are subject to change) to record a shock win.
The Toon Army have been struggling at home – with no wins in front of their home fans in their last 7 in the league, but on the road they’ve been a bit better – winning their last two.
That will give the Magpies some hope, while when they faces City earlier this season then managed to keep it respectable with just a 0-1 defeat.
With Newcastle being newly-promoted then the last time then met in this repeat fixture was in 2015 and with City winning that one 6-1 the Magpies will not be looking for a repeat of that score line.
In fact, City are actually unbeaten in their last 20 league head-to-heads over Newcastle and we’ve seen just one draw in the last 15 clashes between these two in the league.
It goes without saying the 1.10 on offer on a City win is no value at all, and one of the skinniest prices I’ve ever seen in a Premier League match, so we’ll have to look elsewhere for value.
Both teams DIDN’T score in 8 of the last 10 clashes so this is a possible option at 1.66 (odds are subject to change), while 6 of the last 8 meetings (all comps) produced UNDER 2.5 GOALS – you can back a repeat of this at a tempting 3.60 – or if you prefer a bit more of a cushion UNDER 3.5 GOALS is 2.00 (odds are subject to change).
It’s also interesting that 6 of Newcastle’s last 7 league games actually went Under 1.5 goals, so if you think Newcastle can limit the damage here then this can be backed at a tasty 9.00 (odds are subject to change).
City’s Sergio Aguero loves playing against Newcastle too – he’s netted 8 goals in his last 5 games against the Magpies, but won’t be much value to do so again. With 14 league goals Raheem Sterling is another City option on the scoring front, but they’ve got so many potential scorers these days that even this market can be saturated.
Yes, City didn’t defend well last week at Liverpool, but Newcastle at home will be a lot easier for the league leaders and with the visitors finding it hard to score at the moment – remember 6 of their last 7 league games went under 1.5 goals – then the safest call here looks to be BOTH TEAMS ‘NOT’ TO SCORE at 1.66 (odds are subject to change).
Best Bet: BOTH TEAMS ‘NOT’ TO SCORE @1.66
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Saturday 20th January 2018
Manchester City v Newcastle United 17:30, BT Sports
- Already played this season, Newcastle 0-1 Man City
- Last repeat fixture (2015), Man City 6-1 Newcastle
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 20 league head-to-heads vs Newcastle
- Just 1 DRAW in the last 15 league head-to-heads
- Aguero has scored 8 goals in his last 5 league games vs Newcastle
- 6 of the last 8 head-to-heads (all comps) went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 8 of the last 10 head-to-heads
- 6 of Newcastle’s last 7 league games went UNDER 1.5 GOALS
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 5 of Newcastle’s last 7 games
- 17 of Man City’s 23 league games this season went OVER 2.5 GOALS
- Man City have won 10 of their 11 home league games this season (1 draw)
- Man City have scored at least 2 goals in 19 of their 23 league games this season
- Sterling is Man City’s top league scorer this season (14 goals)
- Joselu is Newcastle’s top league scorer this season (4 goals)