Saturday 27th January 2018
Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion 19:45, BT Sport
We return to the FA Cup this weekend with the final 32 sides playing out their Fourth Round games.
With four round to go till the final then it’ s no shock to see Man City, who are still in with a shout of winning four cups this season, as the favourites in the FA Cup outright betting at around 3.75. Man Utd are next best in the betting at 5.50, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs just behind on 6.00.
Like in most seasons in the FA Cup it will be a surprise if one of these main five Premier League sides doesn’t win this competition again
Chelsea face Newcastle, City are away at Cardiff, while Man Utd travel to Yeovill, but it’s the Liverpool v West Brom game that catches the eye.
Of course, the sides have already met this season and that game came at Anfield too. It ended Liverpool 0-0 West Brom so if you fancy a repeat of that score you’ll be rewarded at 17.00, while that outcome will also have West Brom fans thinking they can get something out of this clash.
The sides have faced-off in the FA Cup 10 times before and it’s West Brom that have won more – with 4 victories to Liverpool’s 3, plus 3 draws.
Having said that, the last of those FA Cup encounters was way back in 1968 – in a meeting that required two replays to resolve!
So, yes, West Brom do have an edge over the Merseysiders in the FA Cup, but current league form clearly puts Liverpool on top. The Reds haven’t lost in their last 9 vs West Brom, while it’s worth noting the Baggies have also only scored 1 goal in their last three against them.
Therefore, no shocks in the match betting with Liverpool as low as 1.28, with the draw 6.00 and West Brom at 8.00.
The ‘to qualify odds’ are even more in favour of Liverpool at 1.14 and West Brom 5.5o to make it into the 5th round.
If you are planning on wading into Liverpool at short odds then be a bit warned! 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads actually ended in DRAWS and with Liverpool also coming into the game off the back of a league defeat vs Swansea then that will give West Brom further hope.
Liverpool’s Mo Salah will get a lot of interest in the scorers markets – he’s 4.00 to net the first, or 1.72 anytime, while if you are looking for a West Brom goal then Jay’s Rodriguez, who has netted 11 league goals so far this term for the Baggies, might be the answer – he’s 13.00 to score first, or 4.50 anytime.
The Baggies do also head into the game unbeaten in their last three, and as already mentioned the fact they’ve also drawn 3 of their last 6 games vs Liverpool then the 6.00 on another draw, and taking this clash to a reply, is not the worst shout in the world.
With West Brom sure to make life hard for Liverpool and having nothing much to lose then the we are opting for a tight game here, with few goals.
We are backing this up with 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads producing Under 2.5 goals, while 5 of West Brom’s last 6 matches (all comps) have seen less than 3 goals. Baggies boss – Alan Pardew – has turned them into harder side to face and we can expect more of the same here.
With the recent goal stats in mind, it’s also a bit surprising to see Under 2.5 goals as the bigger price in this market at 2.35 (Over 2.5 is 1.57), so there certainly looks like some value here.
If you do require a bit of a safety net then having one more goal on your side in the Under 3.5 goals at 1.53 might catch the eye, but that’s only a 0.82 price difference for an extra one goal – we’d prefer to remain with the better value.
Yes, it might be a dangerous time to play Liverpool after their Monday night away loss at Swansea, but it also gives sides like West Brom a glimmer of hope that they can get something out of this. With this in-mind we’ll stick with a low-scoring game with the visitors making life hard for the Merserysiders.
Best Bet: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @2.35
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Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion 19:45, BT Sport
- Last met (Premier League) 2017, Liverpool 0-0 West Brom
- Met in the FA Cup 10 times, Liverpool 3, Draw 3, West Brom 4
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 9 vs West Brom
- 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads ended in DRAWS
- West Brom have scored just 1 goal in the last 3 head-to-heads
- M Salah (Liverpool) is their top league scorer (18 goals)
- Rodriguez (West Brom) is their top league scorer (11 goals)
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last 3 games
- 5 of West Brom’s last 6 games went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- West Brom have drawn 3 of their last 6 games