Saturday 17th March 2018
Liverpool v Watford 17:30
It’s a bit mixed bag this weekend as we’ve also the FA Cup Qtr-finals to take in so not every Premier League side is playing.
Plus, there is no real FA Cup standout games for me so I’m sticking to the league action with Liverpool, who are might in the mix of the top four battle, welcome Watford to Anfield in the Saturday early evening game.
With Watford looking to have more than enough points in order to stay up then really it should be a nice final 8 games for the Hornets. Yes, they can’t fully relax as the higher up the league you finish the more prize money you win and it goes without saying they will want to end as high as they can.
The sides met earlier this season with that ending in a thrilling 3-3 draw – so the neutrals will be hoping for more of the same here. It’s unlikely but a repeat of that score can be backed at 101.00!
Watford fans will, however, remember their trip to Anfield last season and hoping history doesn’t repeat itself – that clash ended Liverpool 6-1 Watford.
What do the stats suggest? Liverpool have lost just 1 of their last 10 vs Watford so it’s easy to see why they are priced up at 1.16 in the match betting, with the draw 7.00 and Watford as big as 15.00.
In fact, Watford has scored just 1 goal in their last 4 away games at Liverpool so this fixture hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for them in the past.
Overall, they’ve met 9 times in the Premier League with Liverpool holding the clear edge with 6 wins to Watford’s 2, with 1 draw.
It is worth pointing out that the sides have only played out 1 DRAW in the last 16 head-to-heads.
Will there be goals? The short answer is yes – there should be. Ok, Watford have only netted once in their last 4 away games at Liverpool but 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads have gone OVER 2.5 GOALS, while Liverpool have scored in 9 of their last 10 vs Watford.
Over 2.5 goals can be backed at only 1.44 though and really, we might be relying on Liverpool getting 3+ goals for this bet to collect, which might be a tad risky.
This is backed up with both teams NOT scoring in 7 of the last 9 head-to-heads so at 1.66 there looks to be a bit more value in this option.
Liverpool’s top league scorer this season – Mo Salah – will, of course, be popular in the scoring markets but Firmino and Mane might be better value – this pair also have a good record against Watford – scoring 3 each in their last 4 games vs the Hornets.
Both teams have also scored in the last 3 head-to-heads, so at 1.70 this might appeal as well.
So, it’s a game that Liverpool are fully expected to win. They also have much more to play for at this stage of the season than Watford – being they are in the top four battle. Of course, there is no point backing them at 1.16 (odds are subject to change) but with the Hornets having trouble scoring at Anfield then the 1.66 on offer on both teams NOT scoring looks the way to go – with Firmino and Mane – the two players we like in the scoring markets.
BEST BET: BOTH TEAMS ‘NOT’ TO SCORE @1.66
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Saturday 17th March 2018
Liverpool v Watford 17:30
- Already played this season, Watford 3-3 Liverpool
- Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Liverpool 6-1 Watford
- Liverpool have lost just 1 of their last 10 vs Watford
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 7 of the last 9 head-to-heads
- Watford have scored just 1 goal in their last 4 away league games at Liverpool
- Met 9 times in the Premier League, Liverpool 6, Draw 1, Watford 2
- 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS
- Liverpool have scored in 9 of the last 10 vs Watford
- Liverpool’s Firmino has scored 3 in the last 4 head-to-heads
- Liverpool’s Sadio Mane has scored 3 in the last 4 head-to-heads
- 1 DRAW in the last 16 head-to-heads