Saturday 7th April 2018
Everton v Liverpool 12:30
It’s week 33 for most of the sides this weekend as we enter the final stages of the 2017/18 Premier League season.
There’s a strong Derby theme running through the fixtures too as City could win the title with a win over bitter rivals Man Utd, while Chelsea welcome West Ham to Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
However, before those matches we’ve also got the small matter of the Merseyside Derby – one of the season highlights – as Everton welcome their neighbours Liverpool to Goodison Park.
With Everton in no danger of going down in 9th , and on 40 points, then they’ve not much to play for now but we can still expect them to be up this a clash against Liverpool – especially as the Toffeemen have not beaten the Reds at home now in the last 6 repeat league fixtures.
In contrast, Liverpool still have a bit to play for this season and they are still in shake-up for the Champions League, plus one of the lucrative ‘top four’ places that will qualify them for Europe’s top club competition next season.
As we head into this weekend, The Reds are currently sitting pretty in third place on 66 points and with 5th place Chelsea now 10 points behind then it will be a big surprise if Klopp’s men aren’t ending the campaign in one of the top 4 places.
What are the stats saying? When the teams played earlier this season in the league at Anfield that finished 1-1, while don’t forget they also met in the FA Cup this season – that ended Liverpool 2-1 Everton.
Last season’s repeat of this fixture finished as follows – Everton 0-1 Liverpool – while – as mentioned above – the Reds come into this game unbeaten in their last 6 league clashes at Goodison.
Looking at the match betting it suggests more of the same too with Liverpool the 1.61 favourites despite being away from home, with the draw 4.20 and Everton 4.75.
In fact, Liverpool come here unbeaten in their last 16 (in all comps) against Everton and have scored at least one in 9 of their last 10 vs the Toffeemen.
A fairly big word of caution though as a lot of those recent head-to-heads have been DRAWS. A huge 7 of the last 12 (58%) have ended all-square, while 4 of the last 5 repeat fixtures also saw both teams take a point each from the game.
Will there be goals? With players like Salah, Mane, Firmino and Rooney sure to be involved then the obvious answer here is – yes. Salah leads the way for Liverpool with 29 league goals, while Rooney is currently on 10 for Everton – of course the pair are sure to be popular in the scoring markets as always. Plus – both were on the scoresheet for their clubs in the 1-1 league draw earlier this season.
However, it’s worth pointing out head-to-heads between these sides are generally close affairs. 5 of the last 8 saw Under 2.5 goals, while the last three repeat fixtures also had less than 3 goals scored.
Yes, the FA Cup meeting earlier this season finished 2-1 to Liverpool but with Under 2.5 goals the second favourite in this market at 2.10 (Over 2.5 goals is 1.70) then there looks to be some value here.
Both teams have also found the back of the net in the last three head-to-heads so at 1.70 there is a certain amount of appeal here.
There used to be a history of RED CARDS in these Merseyside Derby’s, however, it’s worth pointing out we’ve only seen 1 red card in the last 14 head-to-heads (all comps), with the last one coming in 2016 (Everton).
So, to round-up, with Liverpool’s excellent recent record over Everton then really, it’s hard to look beyond the Reds here. However, with the top four race looking a bit more secure for them they might have one eye on the Champions League still and as pointed out a lot of these clashed do end in draws.
The 4.20 on another stalemate is certainly much better value than the 1.61 on Liverpool in the match betting but the call here is for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
This bet has paid out in the last 3 meetings (all comps) between Everton and Liverpool and in a game that Everton have little to lose we can expect them to make life difficult at time for the Reds. In contrast, with Salah, who has netted 29 goals this term in your side, then Liverpool also have a huge scoring threat. Also, don’t forget the Reds have scored in 9 of their last 10 vs Everton so there is every chance they will do so again.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.70
Everton v Liverpool 12:30
– Already played this season, Liverpool 1-1 Everton
– Met in the FA Cup this season too, Liverpool 2-1 Everton
– Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Everton 0-1 Liverpool
– 4 of the last 5 repeat fixtures ended in DRAWS
– 7 DRAWS in the last 12 head-to-heads
– Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 6 repeat fixtures
– Liverpool are unbeaten vs Everton in the last 16 head-to-heads (all comps)
– Liverpool have scored in 9 of the last 10 head-to-heads
– Both teams have scored in the last 3 head-to-heads
– The last 3 repeat fixtures ALL went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
– 5 of the last 8 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
– Liverpool’s top league scorer this season is Salah (29)
– Everton’s top league scorer this season in Rooney (10)