England v Wales World Cup, Tuesday 29th November 2022
The final World Cup Group B game sees England and Wales lock horns on Tuesday in what is always a clash more than just a football match.
The Three Lions are sitting top of Group B with 4 points after thumping Iran 6-2 and drawing 0-0 with USA, while it’s more desperate stuff for Wales with just a point from their first two games with a 1-1 draw vs the US and losing late on to Iran last week.
This means England only need a point to qualify, but could also still go though if Wales beat them by less than 4 goals and either Iran or USA win
Wales, therefore have a lot resting on the outcome of the other match, with USA needing a win or they are out, while Iran could qualify with a win or a draw (if Wales don’t win).
A lot of permutations, but the match betting suggests an England win at 1.44, with the draw 4.50 and Wales on offer at 8.00.
The sides have 14 points between them in the FIFA rankings (England 5, Wales 19) and after 17 past head-to-heads it’s England that has the far superior record with 12 wins, 2 draws and 3 wins for Wales.
They last faced-off in 2020 in a Friendly and that resulted in an easy 3-0 win for England, while the Three Lions have also won the last six clashes with Wales.
5 of the last 7 also went UNDER 2.5 GOALS, so this might appeal at 2.00 and both teams DIDN’T score in 6 of the last 7 either – this can be backed at 1.70.
In fact, Wales have scored just 1 goal in their last 6 matches vs England, so with Wales most likely going to need to win the game by 4 goals looks a huge uphill task.
Looking at the more recent match stats for the sides, Wales will gain some confidence from knowing that England have actually only won one of their last 8 matches and drawn 4 of their last 7.
The Three Lions have also failed to score in 5 of their last 8 too.
Harry Kane, the last World Cup Golden Boot winner, is yet to get off the mark at this tournament and is on offer here at 4.00 (1st) or 2.05 (anytime), but do check the team news building up to the game as England might make a fair few changes here.
A lot of England fans were screaming for Phil Foden to play in the last game and so Southgate might buckle to that pressure and field him here – he’s 8.00 (1st) or 3.75 (anytime).
Looking at Wales, they’ve not won in their last 7 games and have won only one of their last 10 – but have at least scored in 13 of their last 15.
Gareth Bale is their main man with 41 International goals – the former Tottenham man is in offer at 9.50 (1st) or 4.33 (anytime).
Overall, it’s a game that England should be winning and after the way Wales lost late on suggests they might be a bit fatigued here. But England have a bit to prove at the moment, so taking the short odds on them has been costly in their last 6 or 7 games.
With that in mind, the ‘both teams NOT to score’ at 1.70 looks a fair option. Wales have only scored one goal in their last 6 vs England, while 86% of the last 7 head-to-heads also ended up with one (or both) sides not scoring.
BEST BET: BOTH TEAMS ‘NOT’ TO SCORE @ 1.70
England vs Wales
- FIFA World Rankings, England 5, Wales 19
- Met 17 times before, England 12, Draws 2, Wales 3
- Last met (Friendly, 2020), England 3-0 Wales
- England have won the last 6 head-to-heads
- 5 of the last 7 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
- Both teams DIDN’T score in 6 of the last 7 head-to-heads
- Wales have scored just 1 goal in their last 6 vs England
England Match Stats
- England have won just 1 of their last 8 games
- England have DRAWN 4 of their last 7 games
- England have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 games
- 3 of England last 5 games went OVER 3.5 goals
- Both teams DIDN’T scored in 7 of England’s last 9 games
- Harry Kane has scored 51 goals for England
Wales Match Stats
- Wales have not won in their last 7 games
- Wales have drawn 3 of their last 10 games 1-1
- Wales have scored in 13 of their last 15 games
- Both teams have scored in 5 of Wales’s last 7 games
- Wales have won just 1 of their last 10 games
- Both teams have scored in 10 of Wales’s last 13 games
- Top Scorer: Gareth Bale, 41 goals 110 caps