Man City v Liverpool Premier League Betting Guide: 9th Sept 2017

Saturday 9th September

Manchester City v Liverpool 12:30, Sky Sports


 

That’s another International break done-and-dusted, so the focus turns back to the domestic action as we head into week four in the Premier League.

All 20 sides are on show and like most weeks we get going on Saturday lunchtime with a 12:30 fixture, and this week it’s a cracker of a game as Manchester City host Liverpool.

This clash is always one that both sets of fans, not to mention the neutrals, circle as a ‘must-see’ game and despite it coming early on this season it’s still a fixture that will have a big bearing on who will win the title this term.

Both sides have made decent starts to their league campaigns and currently have identical records after three games with two wins and a draw.

Therefore, with 7 points they are both well-positioned during this early part of the season and being just 2 points off the leaders – Man Utd – then a win for either side in this early kick-off will see them leap-frog to the top of the table.

The outright Premier League betting sees Man City now at 2.40 with Bet365, while Liverpool are 11.00, while the likes of Man Utd (3.25), Chelsea (6.50) and Spurs (15.00) are all priced-up as follows.

While the match betting ahead of this game sees Man City as favourites at 1.85, the draw 3.80 and Liverpool 3.80.

What do the stats say?

Last season’s repeat fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, so a stalemate in the win-draw/win market can be backed at 3.80, while repeat of that 1-1 score line is on offer at 8.50. In fact, did you know 2 of the last 3 head-to-heads also ended 1-1?

Liverpool do, however, hold a slight edge over City at the moment as not only did they get a draw in this fixture 12 months ago, but they also won the league fixture at Anfield last season, while the Merseysiders are actually unbeaten in their last six over City.

With that in-mind, a Liverpool win, or a draw, in the ‘Double Chance’ market certainly catches the eye at 1.95 – only a City win would see that bet flushed down the pan.

Looking at the head-to-head stats then other standouts are that both teams scored in 10 of the last 12 clashes (including all of the last 5), but the layers have latched onto this too with this option a poor 1.44 in the betting.

Yes, Liverpool have a good record over City at the moment, but it’s also worth pointing out that the light blue side of Manchester have lost just 1 of their last 8 home games over Liverpool. But a lot of these have ended all-square and this is further backed up with 5 draws in the last 12 head-to-heads (home and away) – that’s a fair 42% strike-rate so the 3.80 on both teams sharing the spoils again here does look decent value.

Liverpool’s James Milner has scored 2 in his last 3 against City so he’s a player to have on your radar, while City’s Raheem Sterling will clearly want to do well against the club that sold him a few seasons back.

Liverpool have scored the first goal of the game in 5 of the last 6, so this might be another option to take a second look at – priced at 2.40. While if you like delving into the overs/unders goal market then with 6 of the last 7 clashes producing OVER 2.5 GOALS then this might appeal at 1.47 or over 3.5 goals is a slightly better 2.10.

However, with these sides playing out a lot of draws when meeting and then we’ll stick with Liverpool/Draw in the ‘Double Chance’ market at 1.95. Both sides would probably take a point here and move on, while with the Reds also having a good record of scoring the first goal of the game when they meet then if this is to be repeated then we’d also have trading out options.

 

Best Bet: LIVERPOOL/DRAW ‘DOUBLE CHANCE’

 

Saturday 9th September

Manchester City v Liverpool 12:30, Sky Sports

  • Last season’s repeat fixture ended, Man City 1-1 Liverpool
  • Liverpool took 4 points off Man City last season
  • 2 of the last 4 head-to-heads ended 1-1
  • 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in the last 6 vs Man City
  • Both teams scored in 10 of the last 12 head-to-heads
  • James Milner (Liverpool) has scored 2 in the last 3 head-to-heads
  • Liverpool have scored the first goal in 5 of the last 6 head-to-heads
  • 5 DRAWS in the last 12 head-to-heads
  • Both teams scored in ALL the last 5 head-to-heads
  • Man City have lost just 1 of their last 8 home league games vs Liverpool
  • 6 of the last 7 repeat head-to-heads went OVER 2.5 GOALS