Spain v Italy World Cup Qualifying Betting Guide: 2nd Sept 2017

Spain v Italy 19:45 (Saturday 2nd Sept 2017)

Spain v Italy World Cup Qualifying Betting Guide: 2nd Sept 2017

After three weeks into the new domestic league seasons the attention switches back to the International scene this weekend as we’ve another round of World Cup Qualifiers to take in.

The games spread from Thursday 31st of Aug to Saturday 2nd Sept, with another set of fixtures next midweek too as the sides try and move one step closer to securing their place at the Russian World Cup Finals next summer.

So, plenty of games that catch the eye, but it’s the Spain vs Italy clash on Saturday night that stands out as one of the matches of this round.

Looking at the match betting we could be in for a fairly tight game, but with home advantage then it’s no real shock to see Spain head the win/draw/win market at 1.85, with the draw 3.40 and Italy 4.33.

What do the stats say?

Both sides are flying high in Group G with 16 points and being they are already 7 points clear of the pack then it will be a huge shock if these European heavyweights are not qualifying for the finals next summer. But there is still a bit of work to be done and both managers will know that a victory in this game will pretty much seal their place.

Both have won 5 of their 6 games in qualification with the only draw coming when these sides played out a 1-1 stalemate back in October at the Juventus Stadium.

With ALL of the last 5 head-to-heads being tight affairs then it could be more of the same here and you suspect that either side would probably take a point here and move on to their remaining games.

In fact, the draw has been by-far the most popular outcome when these sides meet, with 6 of the last 11 ending with the honours shared – while 2 of the last 3 games ended 1-1. A repeat of that score can be backed at 6.50, while – as already mentioned – the draw is on offer at 3.40 and looks fair value.

We’ve also seen ALL of the last 5 head-to-heads go UNDER 2.5 GOALS so it’s no shock to see this option in offer at 1.53, with over 2.5 a much-bigger 2.40.

Both teams DIDN’T score in 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads so at 1.61 this is another option that might appeal, but it’s also slightly surprising that Spain have NEVER lost at home to Italy in the 4 previous times they’ve met on home soil.

In fact, Italy have NEVER scored against Spain when playing them away, which is another key stat that backs-up that we could be in for another tight encounter here.

Italian fans will cling to the fact they beat Spain 2-0 at Euro 2016 and that they are also unbeaten in their last 3 vs Spain so the Draw/Italy in the ‘Double Chance’ market at 1.95 certainly catches the eye as value at just under Evens.

However, the safe call here – especially with Spain’s decent record at home against Italy, is to stick with the UNDER 2.5 GOALS option at 1.53, while those looking for a tad more value might take a risk on Under 1.5 goals at slightly better 2.62.

Best Bet: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 1.53 with

Spain v Italy 19:45 (Saturday 2nd Sept 2017)

  • Last met Oct 2016 (WC Qual), Italy 1-1 Spain
  • Italy are unbeaten in their last 3 vs Spain
  • The last 5 head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • 2 of the last 3 head-to-heads ended 1-1
  • 6 of the last 11 head-to-heads ended in DRAWS
  • Both teams DIDN’T score in 4 of the last 6 head-to-heads
  • Spain have NEVER lost at home to Italy (4 games)
  • All 4 previous repeat head-to-heads went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
  • Italy have NEVER scored away at Spain (4 games)